Powerscourt Coronavirus Briefing – 11 September 2020

The UK economy is benefiting from the easing of coronavirus-related restrictions over the summer. Gross domestic product grew 6.6% in July over June, data from the Office of National Statistics showed on Friday.

But the UK has still only made up about half of the economic output lost during the crisis.  More worryingly, its far from clear that the relaxation which has supported this recovery will be allowed to continue.

If virus levels were continuing on the downward trajectory they had been on prior to the past few weeks, this would be cause for cheer for the UK government, validating its management through the crisis. As it is, the ONS data comes just days after the government effectively reversed two months of progress when it announced plans to start limiting social activity again, throwing an exhausted nation into a state of further confusion about what people are and aren’t allowed to do.

The shaky social compact which governments have counted on to govern through the coronavirus crisis is now badly frayed as people become more tired of apparently arbitrary and nonsensical rules.

Politicians around the world have had to walk an agonising line as they have tried to protect public health without restricting liberty and damaging economies. In the early stages of coronavirus, Boris Johnson’s political capital carried him through the country’s resistance to the privations of lockdown.  But any such goodwill has apparently now broken down. Mask-wearing and adherence to lockdown rules are now more divisive in the UK than Brexit, according to a survey from Demos.

“People’s experience has been so divergent,” Polly Mackenzie, Chief Executive, told the Guardian. “What has been good for one person has been awful for someone else.” The Guardian article highlights the highly uneven impact of coronavirus on society. From poorer virus survival outcomes for BAME people to wealthy people flaunting their leisure time during lockdown, the experience of coronavirus has served to further divide an already fractured population.

The latest apparently arbitrary rule, the new “Rule of Six” which was imposed by the UK government on Thursday to try to curb the spread of the virus, has not only irritated and confused the population but prompted a revolt within the Cabinet, according to the Daily Mail. It said most Cabinet members had dissented from the rules, which were driven by Health Secretary Matt Hancock.

French President Emanuel Macron faces this dilemma as he prepares to unveil a plan to tackle a steep upturn in coronavirus following the country’s highest ever one-day jump in infections. France on Thursday recorded just under 10,000 new cases.

In news which bucks the general embrace for remote based working, US bank JP Morgan Chase on Wednesday called all of its trading staff back to work. The bank’s heads of sales and research used a conference call to demand that all staff except those with child-care issues and medical conditions had to come back in.

JP Morgan is going against the grain: many large corporations such as BP, Google and Fujitsu have embraced remote working – BP to the extent that it has significantly reduced its global property footprint. Increasingly, however, people are warning that distributed workforces have a devastating impact on the business ecosystem which feeds off large businesses and can damage the culture and values of an organisation, negatively impacting junior staff. (Powerscourt plans to be back in the office from next Monday, albeit with the work force split in two and doing alternate days).

Virus infection numbers continue to remain very high in India, the new epicentre of the virus. India recorded a record daily increase of 96,551 cases on Friday, taking its virus case load to 4.5 million, with deaths growing faster than in any nation in the world.

Major stock indices closed down Thursday, largely due to disappointment on the failure of the US government to agree a coronavirus stimulus package.

WHAT ARE COMPANIES SAYING?