Powerscourt Coronavirus Briefing – 14 September 2020

As global cases hit a new daily peak (307,000), the dreaded prospect of a second national lockdown for Britain, for months a remote Armageddon scenario used only to scare children, has begun to be spoken about again as a plausible possibility.

After months of slowly inching back towards normality with growing freedom to see their loved ones, to work, socialise and travel, Britons face the possibility of losing this again as the government struggles to curb a rising infection rate.

Measures making it illegal to socialise in groups of six or higher came into force today, part of the government’s attempt to keep the lid on fast-rising coronavirus infection numbers. Over 3,000 new coronavirus cases were recorded in Britain for a third day in a row on Sunday and cases in care homes appeared to be rising fast. While deaths are a lagging indicator, it is worth noting that the number of UK deaths attributed to the virus yesterday was nine compared to over 1,000 hit on several days in April.

The apparently arbitrary nature of the new rules has prompted cynicism from a public already fatigued by the crisis and its changing requirements. There is also a clear divergence between the medical professions and those who are very anxious about a crushed economy and the removal of personal choice and responsibility.

A poll of members of the British Medical Association revealed that 86% of those surveyed expect a second peak of coronavirus within six months.

Peter Openshaw, a professor of experimental medicine at Imperial College London, told Sky News on Sunday that Britain was on a knife edge and had a matter of days to contain the rising virus levels before losing control of the infection rate.  “We really need to act very quickly now in order to prevent this from growing exponentially,” Professor Openshaw told Sophy Ridge on Sunday. “It’s so much harder to get this sort of thing under control if you delay. Even a few days is potentially going to be quite dangerous now.”

As with earlier in the year, though, there’s a tightrope to be walked between what Boris Johnson has described as “squeezing the brakes” to control virus levels and infringing civil liberties and damaging the economy. Sir Graham Brady, MP for Altrincham and Sale West and chair of the influential backbench 1922 committee, has said the rules impacting parts of Greater Manchester are “a massive infringement of normal civil liberties”.

Israel has become the first country in the world to announce a second national lockdown. For three weeks from Friday – coinciding with the start of the Jewish holiday Rosh Hashana – Israel, which has one of the highest coronavirus infection rates per capita, will impose a hard lockdown including the closure of restaurants, bars, shops and all recreational facilities.

AstraZeneca has resumed the British part of its closely-watched coronavirus vaccine trial after the halt to the trial last week amid safety concerns, to widespread relief. And Pfizer and BioNTech, a rival candidate, have expanded their trial. This is good news, but there is growing concern among scientists and the general public about the lack of transparency over these large trials, given their importance to the overall population.

The neurological symptoms which had developed in a patient on the AstraZeneca trial and which prompted the company to halt its vaccine trial emerged via a presentation to investors, not to the general public, the New York Times reported. Although pharma companies typically withhold specifics in such trials, the fact that so many human lives pivot on the success of these trials – and that the US taxpayer is funding them – brings a responsibility for developers to improve disclosure around the progress of the trials.

Asian shares were up Monday morning on resumed optimism over the prospect of a coronavirus vaccine and continued strength in the tech sector. 

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