Powerscourt Coronavirus Briefing – 18 September 2020

The UK government’s plan to get Britain back to normal for the autumn is coming apart at the seams, largely because of the failure of the much-vaunted test and trace programme which ministers said would support a return to normality. Now, according to news reports, the dreaded second national lockdown – until recently dismissed as politically impossible – is moving onto the horizon.

Britain is, officially or unofficially, crashing into the long-dreaded second wave which scientists warned of earlier in the year. After nearly eight months of planning, gaming and scoping to provide a testing infrastructure to underpin confidence that work and school is safe, the country is not ready.

On Friday it was reported that senior UK government scientific advisers were recommending a shorter national lockdown, designed to act as a “circuit break” to curb a second period of renewed growth in infections. Matt Hancock, the Secretary of State for Health, refused to rule out another national lockdown, telling Sky News on Friday: “We will do what is necessary (to curb the resurgence of the virus).”

Approximately 15% of the UK population is already in regional lockdowns as the government’s strategy of local restrictions expands. Kamlesh Khunti, professor of primary care at Leicester University, told the Times that the local lockdown strategy would not work on its own without an effective testing regime.

Baroness Dido Harding of Winscombe, who heads up responsibility for the government’s test and trace programme, told parliament yesterday she and her officials were blindsided by the demand for tests.

“I don’t think anybody was expecting to see the really sizeable increase in demand that we’ve seen over the course of the last few weeks,” Lady Harding said. “In none of the modelling was that expected.”

She said she had planned on the basis of modelling by the government’s advisory group SAGE, and blamed people for using tests without symptoms. In blaming the public, she apparently failed to take into account that the government had previously pushed testing as a key way for people to reassure themselves that it is safe to go back to work.

In the US, it emerged that guidance on the website of the Centers for Disease Control, recommending that people without symptoms do not get tested, was written by government officials and had been strongly opposed by CDC scientists, causing another row between scientists and the Trump administration.

By contrast the pharmaceutical industry, perhaps desperate to ringfence its own credibility from being co-opted by political pressure, is offering surprising new levels of transparency to investors and the public about the clinical trials process behind the development of vaccines and therapeutics.

Moderna and Pfizer, which are driving two of the most promising vaccine candidates, both consciously lifted the kimono on Thursday as they revealed unprecedented amounts of detail on the design of their late stage trials – traditionally closely-guarded information which is not disclosed until after the trials are complete. Stephane Bancel, the CEO of Moderna, told investors at a Capital Markets event “transparency is important” for vaccine makers to win the confidence both of regulators and exhausted and sceptical citizens.

Data from the UK’s Office of National Statistics on Friday showed a rare bright spot: the UK’s economic recovery which began in the summer has been stronger than expected, based on retail sales. Whether this recovery survives a fresh round of restrictions, however, remains to be seen.

Asian shares rose into Friday after most global stock indices closed down on Thursday.

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