Powerscourt Coronavirus Briefing – 24 October 2020

The United States faces a surge in cases, a few weeks behind Europe’s second wave and 11 days ahead of the November 3 general election. There have been 441,000 positive results over the seven days to Friday, the highest since July. Opinion polls consistently show that the pandemic is the most important issue for Amercian voters and also that President Donald Trump, like leaders in many countries, is blamed in part for faltering responses.

The surge is at its worst this weekend in the Midwest where Trump and Joe Biden, his Democrat rival, are focused on three so-called Swing States: Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Trump is ahead in polls in Ohio and behind in the other two. Will the increased infection rate impact his chances of clawing back support?

Biden is (naturally) pessimistic in his public utterances on the issue. He warned during Thursday’s TV debate of a “dark winter”. Unsurprisingly, Trump said yesterday that there would be no dark winter and that America is rounding the final bend. Increasing rates of infection don’t help his argument.

The race for a vaccine is heating up. Both AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson got the green light from the US Food & Drink Administration to restart trials in America after addressing early concerns. Astra is testing on 30,000 people in the US for its so-called Oxford vaccine, long seen as a front runner in the race.

Another leading contender, Russia’s Sputnik V, has a second customs in Brazil where a  local drug company is going to start manufacturing. Trials are also starting in India.

In the UK, many people woke up today to greater restrictions to curb high transmission rates. At 12.01am, South Yorkshire joined Liverpool City, Lancashire and Greater Manchester in tier 3 restrictions. Yesterday evening at 6pm Wales went into an even stricter two week ‘firebreak’.

There is more to come: Nottinghamshire and Warrington are likely to enter tier 3 next week and the Scottish parliament is to debate a new five tier system.

As greater restrictions spread across the UK, there was at least some consolation yesterday that they were having some effect. Data from the Government Office for Science shows that the R value – the average number of cases generated by an infected individual – is down to 1.2 to 1.4 from 1.3 to 1.5. The R number and growth rate are now highest in regions less affected by the highest restrictions, led by the South West.

Whether this means that restrictions will allow for normality at Christmas – a hope expressed previously by Boris Johnson – remains to be seen. Scottish officials have started to talk about a ‘digital Christmas’ while chief scientific officer Patrick Vallance said that this would depend on the coming weeks.

If the prospect of a turkey dinner is receding into the distance, restaurants have been at pains to point out to diners that household mixing is permitted if the primary purpose of the occasion is business. The truth of this interpretation is disputed, with a Downing Street spokesperson stressing on Tuesday that it is intended for the freelancer and the self-employed in need of locations to conduct business. Culture Minister Oliver Dowden muddied the waters on Thursday by stressing that people should, “go to work or as normally as we can in this crisis”.

Elsewhere the issue of food in the pandemic was of greater critical urgency. Yesterday, footballer Marcus Rashford shared details on Twitter of many local businesses stepping up to provide free food to those in need. This too came as part of the latest wave of support for of his campaign to feed those in receipt of free school meals in the school holidays. McDonalds, Iceland, Aldo, Tesco, The Co-Operative, Waitrose and Kellogg’s are also heavily involved.

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