Powerscourt Coronavirus Briefing – 02 November 2020

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s chaotic announcement on Saturday evening that England would go into a second lockdown was redeemed by the hope of release on December 2 with citizens and businesses able to celebrate Christmas, Chanukah, Diwali and various other forms of seasonal togetherness after the four week lockdown elapsed.

Reports on Monday suggest that may have been an optimistic gloss. The Times reported that Cabinet ministers have said it would be “very difficult” to end the lockdown if deaths and hospital admissions are still rising. One minister told the Times that if transmission remained high “all bets are off”. Government may allow for a mild relaxation of restrictions for the festive season itself, but several sources have told the newspaper that restrictions are likely to remain in place into the New Year.

Meanwhile, inconsistency in the UK government’s message around the second lockdown, against a background of multiple policy fumbles throughout the year, has left the government exposed and facing fury primarily from its own MPs.

The FT reports a darkening mood in Johnson’s own Conservative party, with the Prime Minister expected to face another rebellion from backbench MPs who believe he is sacrificing the economy through the continued waves of restrictions.

Ominously for Johnson, the Daily Telegraph, once a Johnson “fanzine”, leads on the plans of one of the figureheads of the pro-Leave movement, Nigel Farage, to form a new party called Reform UK, centred around the idea that lockdowns and restrictions on freedoms don’t protect citizens or the economy against coronavirus.

Farage formerly headed the Brexit Party, which won 29 seats in last year’s European Parliament election and has been a thorn in the government’s side for years as a lightning rod for people who wanted the UK to leave the European Union. He and his partner, former Brexit party Chairman Richard Tice, are beginning to attract support from those people who believe that coronavirus strategy should be driven by protecting the most vulnerable, allowing those with modest risk from the virus to continue as normal, thereby protecting the economy.

The head of the UK vaccines taskforce, Kate Bingham, told a private meeting of investors at the weekend that every person in the UK who needs a COVID vaccine over the age of 50 will have it by Easter.

Bingham said a recent vaccine “dress rehearsal” had been “quick and efficient”. Data readouts are expected from several of the leading vaccine candidates in late stage studies by the end of December.

On the eve of what could be a seismic and highly divisive US Presidential Election, voters and markets alike are both braced for anything, with coronavirus driving much of the political narrative.

With stand-offs reported between groups of Trump and Biden supporters in New Jersey, North Carolina and Texas, Dr Anthony Fauci, the Director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease has yet again become the focus of Trump supporters’ ire.

At one of a flurry of pre-election rallies by the President, in Florida, a crowd chanted “Fire Fauci”, tacitly encouraged by the President, who told his supporters “let me wait until a little bit after the election”. Fauci, a leading immunologist, told the Washington Post over the weekend the US should prepare for a “whole lot of hurt” with a rising death toll from the virus through the winter.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reports that doctors are now beginning to get to grips with the reason why COVID-19 has the potential to generate long-lasting symptoms affecting multiple organs, including gastrointestinal issues and memory loss, in some patients.

Theories explaining the persistence of coronavirus symptoms – called “long-COVID” – long after the end of the acute disease phase include the possibility that the virus may cause the immune system to attack its own organs. Researchers are also exploring the possibility that COVID-19 could damage the so-called “vagus nerve”, an interface between the brain and the heart, lungs and digestive tract.

US shares ended lower on Friday but Asian equities were cautiously upbeat into Monday despite gloom in Europe and apprehension about the US election.

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