Powerscourt Coronavirus Briefing – 03 November 2020

The US goes to the polls today in one of the most contentious and fraught elections in its history. The government’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic is Exhibit A to an angry and highly divided electorate, with President Donald Trump facing off against his Democrat challenger Joe Biden.

President Trump has throughout the pandemic been sceptical of its health impact, expressing borderline contempt for people who show concern or fear about the virus or who wear face-coverings, and has consistently resisted guidance on social distancing. In the last moments of the campaign he has again sought to project normalcy in his last rallies, flouting public health guidelines at every turn.

In rallies in Ohio and Pennsylvania, Biden by contrast argued that there could be no return to routine until the virus is under control. Biden has deliberately claimed that Trump is the weakest link in America’s approach to tackling COVID-19. “The first step to beating the virus is beating Donald Trump,” he declared, adding, “The power to change the country is in your hands.”

Many voters have already decided whose story they are buying, so the late rallies may mainly be cosmetic. And most scientists have nailed their colours to the Biden mast.

A report on Monday from Dr Deborah Birx, the coordinator of the White House virus task force, contradicted repeated claims by President Trump that the US is on the way to defeating the virus. Dr Birx’s report warned against the sorts of rallies that President Trump and his supporters have been holding across the US and suggested that the infection rate would remain over 100,000 new cases a day for several weeks.

Across the pond in Europe, renewed lockdowns and failing businesses are putting further pressure on the fraying social contract.

UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson was savaged in the Commons on Monday for his handling of the most recent national lockdown, which he had promised would not happen until days before its announcement on Saturday. Yesterday, he desperately tried to claw back some political capital and moral support, telling parliament that the failure to act now against the virus would lead to a “medical and moral disaster” with the NHS overwhelmed within weeks.

But members of Johnson’s own party who are concerned about the threat to business and civil liberties are furious about the impact of the new lockdown. On the other side of the house, Keir Starmer, leader of the opposition Labour Party, has accused him of a “catastrophic failure of judgement and leadership” by dithering and delaying the lockdown for several weeks despite clear warnings from his scientific advisers that an early lockdown could avoid pain.

Around Europe, restrictions imposed by governments to control the virus are now tipping over into political unrest. Amazon, the online retail giant, has become a target of new ire for French retailers, who have argued that the new restrictions in place in France will widen an already huge gulf between the fortunes of tech giants and the bricks and mortar retailers.

Complaints from small traders in France have prompted Amazon to withdraw publicity around its Black Friday sale, slated for November 27.

In Madrid, demonstrators set up makeshift barricades and set fire to rubbish bins in one of the city’s main streets. Demonstrators clashed with police in the Italian cities of Florence and Rome. Rome’s Campo de Fiori, one of its most iconic squares and previously a popular tourist destination, became an unlikely flashpoint, where supporters of a neo fascist organisation fought with police.

Liverpool is to become the new front-line in the UK government’s renewed attempt to revive its beleaguered £12 billion track and trace programme. Under the programme, which begins on Friday, the government plans to use the army for logistical support to test everyone living or working in the city, which has one of the UK’s highest virus caseloads. A number of different test types will be used in the programme.

The goal of the government is eventually to test other UK cities if the Liverpool pilot is successful.

Reuters reports that markets are braced for a wild ride as the US election campaign draws to a close. Hedge fund managers are girding their portfolios against post-election volatility. For now, though, the market is upbeat. US shares closed up on Monday, with Asian markets rallying into Tuesday.

WHAT ARE COMPANIES SAYING?