Powerscourt Coronavirus Briefing – 27 November 2020

A merry Christmas? Not for most of Britain, which is going into a new, stringent tier system to prevent a coronavirus resurgence over the holidays.

The ultimate silver bullet – the arrival of a vaccine – has lost some of its lustre in recent days amid growing attacks on the credibility of Britain’s home-grown vaccine candidate and fears that it may not be approved in the US and Europe.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s latest coronavirus plan, unveiled on Thursday, has succeeded in annoying and alienating almost everyone in the UK, from libertarian backbench Conservative MPs to traditional Labour supporters in the North of England.

Nearly 99% of people in England will be subject to tough restrictions with little prospect of any change for weeks or even months. Only a small handful of mainly rural communities can expect a more relaxed regime over Christmas.

Liverpool, formerly a hot zone for the virus, has seen drastic reductions in the rate of new infections, driven in large part by a city-wide mass COVID-19 testing programme. London has so far managed to dodge the most acute levels of infection in the second wave, despite being the UK’s most heavily populated city.

Greater Manchester, however, will remain in tier 3 – meaning no socialising indoors, a ban on travelling to other parts of the UK, and pubs and cafes only open for takeaways. Andy Burnham, the mayor of Manchester, who publicly butted heads with the government two months ago, has again expressed anger at what he sees as injustice towards people in the region.

Meanwhile there is growing scepticism about the so-called “Oxford Vaccine”, the vaccine candidate led by AstraZeneca and the University of Oxford, as concern mounts over the quality of the Phase III efficacy data published earlier this week. It emerged earlier in the week, that trial subjects in the subgroup, who had demonstrated the strongest efficacy in the trial, had essentially been given the wrong dose of vaccine, casting doubt on the transparency and competence of the wider trial.

On Thursday Sir John Bell, Regius Professor of Medicine at the University of Oxford, who was closely involved in the trial, robustly defended its credibility to an Oxford medical symposium.

“We weren’t cooking this up as we went along,” Sir John said, insisting that the UK medicines regulator had approved every step of the trial protocols.

AstraZeneca CEO Pascal Soriot said on Thursday the Anglo-Swedish pharma giant will redo that portion of the trial which had prompted the anomalies over efficacy. This shouldn’t hold back the approval of the vaccine: the UK government has already asked the medicines regulator to begin a process.

But the disquiet over the data this week has not helped support credibility and this has the potential to derail approval in the US and Europe, according to several commentators.

One US equity analyst accused AstraZeneca of deliberate miscommunication when it publicised the data. Geoffrey Porges, of SVB Leerink, said in a note to investors that the company had tried to “embellish” the trial data and “brought discredit” to the wider vaccine programme. He doesn’t believe the vaccine will be approved in the US, while others have suggested EU regulators may also have their doubts.

As Thanksgiving comes to an end, Reuters notes that this year has highlighted the widening gulf in US living standards, which COVID-19 has exacerbated.

In Colorado, the income of the state’s lowest-paid workers has plunged by 20% since the start of the pandemic, while prices for upscale property are soaring as white collar workers thrive.

Despite passionate invocations by health officials not to travel over the holiday period, many millions of people did so anyway, underlining the schism between Americans’ passionate commitment to liberty and the impetus to keep the lid on infection.

A landmark Supreme Court ruling on Wednesday came down on the side of the liberty camp: the Court blocked New York in restricting religious gatherings in areas of high coronavirus infection. The case originated in suits brought by Roman Catholic and orthodox Jewish organisations who claimed the that the limitations violated their First Amendment rights to religious freedom.

Asian stocks reacted positively to signals of continued strength in Chinese factory output on Friday, combined with growing optimism about vaccines.

(Footnote: Powerscourt advises Russia Direct Investment Fund, sponsor of the Sputnik V vaccine candidate)

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